Steep fall in UK net migration figures

Irregular migration to the UK is not falling – Copyright AFP Sameer Al-DOUMY

Net migration to the UK dropped by 69 percent to 204,000 in the year to June, official figures showed on Thursday, in a much-needed boost to Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

The continued downward trend comes as Starmer’s centre-left Labour government is under increasing pressure from the hard-right anti-immigration Reform UK party on the issue.

The figures, which do not include migrant arrivals via highly contentious irregular routes such as cross-Channel small boat journeys, were driven by several factors.

They include fewer non-European Union nationals and their dependants coming to the UK to work and study and more Britons emigrating, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The latest provisional net migration figures — the difference between the numbers of people arriving in and leaving Britain — showed an estimated 898,000 people came in the year to June while 693,000 left permanently.

It is the lowest 12-month tally since 2021.

The annual net migration figures for 2024 — announced in May — also showed a large drop to 431,000, later revised downwards to 345,000.

That was compared with 860,000 recorded in the year to December 2023.

The opposition Conservatives claimed credit Thursday for the ongoing declines. They said they were the result of reforms to work visas, dependants and students ex-prime minister Rishi Sunak enacted before losing power in July 2024.

– Migration crackdown –

The figures may be welcome news for Starmer but they do not provide any relief on irregular migration, which is not falling.

More than 39,000 people, many fleeing countries mired in conflict, have arrived on small boats this year. That is more than for the whole of 2024, but lower than the record set in 2022, during the last Conservative administration.

Reform UK, led by Brexit figurehead Nigel Farage, has enjoyed double-digit leads over Labour in opinion polls for most of this year as it campaigns relentlessly on the issue.

Interior Minister Shabana Mahmood earlier this month announced a crackdown on both legal and irregular migration, partly in response to surging support for Farage’s party.

The government is also pinning its hopes on a so-called “one in, one out” scheme agreed with France to curb small boat arrivals.

New figures released Thursday showed 153 people had now been removed to France and 134 had arrived in the UK under the initiative.

For each UK migrant arrival deemed irregular and ineligible for an asylum application and sent back to France, another is allowed in to Britain through a “new safe and legal route”.